Is the Spending Supercycle Setting Up Emerging Markets? | Jay Pelosky
Interview with Jay Pelosky
October 12, 2026
Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisory argues a global spending supercycle is globalizing earnings growth and setting up emerging market equities for a multi-year run. We cover his Tripolar World framework, the case for EM, and what could break the thesis.
Jay Pelosky argues that a global spending supercycle is globalising earnings growth and setting up emerging market equities, which he says trade at a roughly 20-year relative discount to developed markets.
In this episode of 1BasisPoint, we speak with Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and a former Morgan Stanley head of asset allocation strategy, about his Tripolar World framework, his "global growth long cycle" thesis, and why he thinks the US is in the early stages of losing its leadership role in global equities.
In this episode:
- The Tripolar World framework: the Americas, Europe and Asia
- Why Jay believes a global spending supercycle could extend the growth cycle toward 2030
- AI investment, energy infrastructure and China's industrial advantage
- Why emerging markets remain relatively cheap and under-owned
- Whether global capital is beginning to rotate away from US assets
- The potential consequences of sovereign debt market stress for emerging markets
- What could invalidate the bullish case for EM equities
- How Jay builds and maintains a global macro investment process
Timestamps
00:00 – Introduction
12:49 – The global growth outlook and the case for sustained investment
20:39 – AI, infrastructure and the next phase of the spending cycle
38:06 – If emerging markets are so attractive, why haven't they rerated?
42:46 – Could stress in developed-market sovereign debt spill over into emerging markets?
48:02 – What could reverse the shift toward emerging markets?
53:32 – What would prove the spending supercycle thesis wrong?
58:00 – What questions did we not ask?
1:00:05 – Career advice and getting started in markets
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📌 Follow Jay Pelosky
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jay-pelosky-a3a558b8
The Tri Polar World — Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com
TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/advisory
Jay’s Substack, The Tripolar World, covers global macro, multi-asset allocation and thematic investing through the lens of regional integration across the Americas, Europe and Asia. He publishes weekly ‘Friday Musings’ plus a monthly deep dive.
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Website: https://www.1bps.us
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Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of TPW Advisory or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.
